GOING BACK TO WHERE IT CAME FROM

Worthy as it seemed, I pre-emptivly wrote 'Go Back to Where You Came From' off, via the preaching/converted trope uttered by many. Happily, I and the other naysayers were wrong- an extraordinary three hours of TV, decent and rational. Not balanced enough for some (click on that if you enjoyed the show and want to get your anger on), but good enough to light a fire under the issue, a more detailed and complicated spark that, at worst, has done a lot to inject some thought back into the issue.

It goes well with a blog post I'd been prepping earlier in the week. Which went a little something like this.

Can we go back, just a little?

It's April 2001. Prime Minister Howard is shot- After winning narrowly in 1998, pushing a GST through, and appearing hilariously unstatesmanlike at every turn, the people are looking like giving him the boot. He's turning out to be a strangely grey, unlikeable turd. The people don't feel pride when they see their leader speaking for them- they cringe, and this tax, the one that Keating used to win the unwinnable 1994 election, still freaks voters. In a Neilson poll published on April 6 2001, Labor led the government 60% - 40% on two-party. It's the biggest lead Kim Beazley's party gains, but it comes on the back of a long run of favourable two party margins. We don't really know much of what Kim is offering us as an alternative- he hasn't defined a narrative as such, though he will roll the GST back- but we like him. He's a good mix of warmth and nobility. He's jolly, but speaks well when the circumstance requires something grave and heartfelt. We're getting ready, as a nation, to put this dalliance with the throwback nerd behind us, call it a terrible mistake, and move on with the better bits of the Keating program delivered by a warmer, gentler leader.

Then, in August, the Howard government refuses safe passage for the Norwegian tanker MV Tampa, which has picked up 438 refugee seekers from Afghanistan, whose vessel had come into troubles. Tampa was on its way to the Australian coastline, as per the protocols set down by UNHCR decree. So you can imagine Tampa and Norway's surprise when the Prime Minister, who had clawed back some points and whose government were currently polling at 47% two-party, starts the 'we will decide who enters this country and the circumstances in which they come' message and leaves Tampa in limbo. Norway cries foul on human rights, Australia stays firm. And 438 people become an effective wedge.

Beazley was under pressure from the left to condemn the action, but his 20% lead from April was now a 6% lead, and he shakily attempted a compromise deal. His lack of a bold, outright condemnation brought questions of his 'ticker'. He was 'wishy-washy'. And the Australian people don't like that. Better someone be loudly wrong than quietly considerate.

Then, a month later, 9/11 happens. The next Neilson poll, taken on September 21, gives the government a 14% point lead over Labor. A 34% turnaround from just four months prior. Labor gains ground up until the election in November, but as we know, they fall short.

And so the creation of this refugee seeker malaise is now set in the national mind. Howard, in refusing entry of the Tampa, showed 'leadership and strength'. The attacks that came a month later confirmed the worst fears of the most exclusionist elements in the country, not to mention a bunch of more moderate minds who suddenly preferenced the safety of their nearest above that of distant others, especially those from the places who also bred those who crashed those planes. And didn't the government run with it?

In 2011, the more things change the more they etc. And we might blame a decade of Coalition bleating and cruelty for the refugee situation, should we be that way inclined (the bleeding heart brigade, us). But now, if we're to look for a reason as to why we're still having this conversation, this ludicrous 'debate' filled with such Orwellian black-hilarity (the queue-jumpers when there is no queue, the use of the word ‘illegal’, the whole thing about boatfolk being vastly overwhelmed in number by planefolk, so on), we should look one K. Rudd in the eye, and ask the big questions.

All the talk of the Rudd return these past few days (and Annabel Crabb, as is her custom, has written a first rate piece about that here) has reminded us of the 'bond he had/has with the Australian people'. Seems true, even now. We've moved on from the very real discomfort we were feeling at the start of 2010, as his weasel words and annoying affectations began to grate with the national ear, before he lost us with the back-down on that great moral challenge (as Hartcher pointed out quite well, Rudd's appeal was that he acted as a moralist- hence, a conviction guy). He believed in stuff. So it seemed. So when he ditched the ETS because the polls were quivering (ever so slightly at that point, barely a ripple), so went the morality, so went the conviction. And what we saw was a mealy-mouthed nerd. A worse kind of nerd than Howard post Tampa.

Which makes Rudd's failures so so much worse. because he held the ear of the nation in 2007 and 2008, and had an opportunity to do the right thing- to put some facts into the game re asylum seekers. To explain that there was no such thing as a queue. That boatpeople consisted of 2% of the intake. That 93% of those detained at Nauru were eventually found to be legit (Yes, Rudd did use this line. But he used it in isolation, as a justification to close Nauru. Not as part of a bigger truth ceremony).

Rudd could have changed the circumstances of the debate with effective, real communications. In doing so he would've shone a different torch onto the Howard legacy. He would've crushed anyone associated with the Howard take on boatpeople (Mr Abbott included). He could have pointed out just how wrong, how inhumane that party and the commentariat who supported it, were. A little communication, some resolve, and you change the terms of the discussion.

But even when his approval rating ran at 70+%, Rudd moved carefully. He was the guy who kept buying his girl flowers and kept asking her if she loved him as much as he her. And she did for a while. But everyone will get tired of such a needy doofus who seems to exist only for the approval of another. Rudd lacked backbone. And we're all the worse for it. Gillard has done no better on refugees- indeed, the discussion is back where it was in August 2001. In an excellent piece Mungo Macallum calls it bullshit on both sides. For this continuing ugly mess that demeans all of us, Rudd must take a big slice of blame.

Game/s On?

Lately, writers for the big dailies have been commenting and tweeting and occasionally filing copy which details the increasingly thin photo ops our leaders are conducting. The idea is that, when in Canberra for Question time, Abbott and Gillard will head to Queenbeyan (a short drive but a world away from the alienating visual of Canberra’s manicured streets) and end up in hi-vis, sprouting inanity.

Abbott has taken the biscuit, and the doily and the plate in recent days. On Tuesday he was infront of a roller door, stating that the carbon tax will 'bring down the door' on Australia and the future and babies and puppies. This came after the photo op on Monday where he awkwardly shoveled sand into a mixer and said something like 'the carbon tax will shovel the fuck out of the faces and heads of the elderly and kittens and baby seals'. Or something.

Via Fairfax

I look forward to the following, future photo ops.

Abbott in Fyshwick, setting off an illegal firework and saying- 'well, ah, the bang and fizz has gone right out of this government'

Abbott standing next to a homeless chap- 'well, ah, you might say that if the government keeps going the way its going, Julia Gillard might be in the market for a new home'

Abbott in Fyshwick, standing outside Adam & Eve (purveyors of quality marital aids)- well, ah, far from being immaculate-ly, ah, conceived, you might say that this government is, ah, fucked

What's amazing is that he, and the party, and its Labor counterparts, think this 101 mindlessness works. What's more amazing is that it does- either that, or the populace are so disengaged, so bored by this and the wider tone of debate, that these inexcusably banal events continue because the care factor is low. Whatever.

People do seem to care about Kevin though.

What a busy week he's had. And what interesting editorials we read in the weekend papers. Peter Hartcher's interview and assessment made it difficult to digest the breakfast brioche, filed with Rudd's carefully timed and properly weighted mea's culpa. Lenore Taylor put things into a calmer perspective. Jack Waterford still thinks we'll all be rooned. And I suspect the Australian called Julia a bitch, Bob Brown a dangerous commie poof terrorist and Abbott a man of great decency and wit and wisdom. Denis Shanahan is outstanding at bringing the lols. But I prefer my comedy to vaguely resemble reality- the punch-line carries more power that way.

What Rudd is doing well however, is PR. And this government is proving to be shockingly bad at PR. 

Roxon has crashed this week, seeking cash from Big Tobacco and thus making her shrill schoolmarm chamber persona loose whatever gravitas it hinted at.  Ludwig remains besieged thanks to inaction and a confusing lack of job awareness in the face of live exports. Bowen remains between his rock and the hard place (Malaysia), quoting Monty Python’s dark knight. Shorten is invisible, Swan remains the worst communicator to have held the Treasurers arm-band since Ralph Willis (meaning that Swanny can expect a Queens Birthday gong in 20 years, but little else beforehand), Combet has his hand forced by a rogue ad agency and had to announce the fact the government will shortly be announcing an ad campaign for a tax that doesn't exist yet, making momentary foes of Windsor and Oakeshott and making his first big error in the big game. And Gillard? Well. Where to start with a problem like Julia.

Way back when, a year or so ago, I wrote my last political post full of hope for Julia’s reign. And like many, I’m confused. It’s not just that she’s performed poorly, been unable to catch the public eye and project her more winning qualities. It’s the nature of the mistakes that confuse. The simple errors. Skill errors we Brumbies fans call them, the stuff you learn in juniors, the second-nature moves that we expect to be in place when you’re paid the big bucks to do it for a living. Policy-wise, this Government is stained by a feeling of inadequacy and incompetence. But more critical in these times of hi-vis photo ops and manta repetition, it's the smear of panic that is shocking to watch. All the pre-annoucements. The garbled explanations. The putzed programs. And the feeling that they're perpetually behind the 8-ball. Which is kinda the opposite of leadership.

Looking back at last years election blog (which broke my best blogging intentions a little) is tough. The final post is a little embarrassing. What a naif I was. A shining wee naif, full of hope and sunshine. What arse. And what an extraordinarily nullifying, mortifying bunch of months it has been since.

The opposition have been getting free hits through the year. That they not only remain in the game but look increasingly solid is an extraordinary thing, given that whenever they’ve looked to do anything apart from comment on how shithouse the government is, they’ve fallen in a heap. Abbott is a figure of fun. Hockey a proverbial balloonful of hot air. And Malcolm- he stirs, he circles, but he needs the government to have a good week so that his leader might stop feeling quite so in control. His time will come, but Malcolm is known to be a little ... premature on this front. Still, he could lead. And I wonder how many Labor people, true believers, are secretly excited in the prospect. At least Malcolm wouldn't be primping for the stupid photo ops. 

We Have a Winner

Where were you, when it all went down, the momentous, game, life and nation changing bits of this truly historic day? That's what it was, right? Truly historic. Sky News told me so. ABC24 did too. And Tony Windsor suggested it himself, in the presser that was probably the actual history changing moment itself, thus indulging in a little meta po-mo hi-jinx as a way of toasting his favourite novelist., David Foster Wallace*. 

Me, I was in my office, about 120 metres away from where it happened. What a strange and actually magnificent space our Parliament House is. The visitor doesn't know the half of it. The grace and genius of the place lay in it's courtyards, the actually-soothing way the halls take you places, the detail and timber and colour and light. It's a building I wish the nation really knew and paid respects to, because it's a fucken marvel. However, it does tend to feel a bit empty. Even when there's a Prime Minister to be called. 

I saw Bob Ellis in Aussies before 8, and he looked up from his vast mound of newspapers to see if I was someone important. It's a strangely disheartening feeling, turning a corner or entering a room and having the nations press and the press' hangers-on look up, poised to pounce if you're a man of newsworthiness, only to turn their gaze once they recognise you as a nobody. Fran Kelly did it to me later, as did Michelle Gratton at morning tea. Never mind. I work for the building, for the flow of process, and its my job to keep the head down. It's a good job in a good place. And today was a good day.

The morning was all speculation. News came that Oakeshott met Abbott six times yesterday. That was a worry. As was news that Abbott was sighted sporting a huge grin the Parliament car park. That filled a lot of airtime. As did a lot of experts, who spoke a lot of what they didn't know. Then the SMH broke it. 

Brilliantly, Fairfax snapper Nicholas Walker nabbed these shots, and it came to pass that this was the script from which Oakeshott read (more on the more that our Rob plated up later...). The supporting text indicates the number 77 crossed out, with 76-74 underneath, alongside the name Ted Mack, and a few other key bits. Soon after this story hit the webs, Katter called the press to his office, and led them and us through one of the strangest conferences ever heard. He meandered. He squawked. He berated. He did it all bar jumping on the table and taking a dump into his hat. He said that he was supporting the Coalition and the tweeting classes assumed this was because the others were going Labor. Bob was sorting his deck. Kinda. Cos he later said that if his mates were going the other way (of course, he didn't know which way they were headed! Of course! Hence the solo presser!)  he might support Labor too. It depends. On bananas or flying foxes or somesuch. So it went. A Bob each way. 

And then, and then, the moment arrived. Windsor was brief but thorough, announcing his support for Gillard, and we knew, because they weren't going to play their cards and then force anther election, thereby associating with a party and losing all their bargaining chips. But Oakeshott saw a spotlight and demanded it for a little longer. A little too long. 26 minutes later he too had announced his support, but he lost a lot of goodwill in the press core. 

Either way it was done, and our returned Prime Minister spoke humbly and well. Abbott did so too, although he probably didn't need the third and fourth reference to winning both the popular vote and more seats. Still, he showed more grace than Bob Baldwin and Barry O'Farrell, who tweeted 'To think Windsor & Oakeshott were going to vote any other way was a folly, the 17 days was nothing more than grandstanding to say the least' and 'so clear proof that a vote for Independents and The Greens is a vote for Labor' respectively. Way to stay classy, losers (you'll have your turn Barry, cool them big heels). Just like that, 2 months, 17 days of extra time later, it was done. It'l be a rough ride. But Gillard is the one you want in this game. 

The questions and blood letting and associated difficulties will start soon. Arbib and Shorten are time bombs. Rudd's ministry will be tough to sort. The continuing strength of Conroy might be a problem. But Gillard, if she has her way, can do plenty of good. She'll need to pull the finger out on Climate Change, but the deal with the Greens will assist that. And she'll know that Labor won't overthrow another PM anytime soon. 

WHAT JULIA NEEDS TO DO 
1. Not get married. That'd be a sideshow. Stay de-facto. Bring the nation to an understanding that a woman doesn't need to be married, a mother, or god-fearing to be formidable. 
2. Sort climate change action, and get gay marriage on the table. In order to do so, shift the Labor rule and
3. Allow conscience votes in the Labor party. It'll be a shitfight, but it is one the people want in their Government. We want human beings and we want heart, and debates of this type, even if the result goes the 'wrong' way, will hearten the people. 
4. Go to every Dogs home game. Be a fixture of the people, every week where it's possible. I wouldn't ask this of Keating or Rudd, but she believes in the Dogs, so make it real and let the people see you, Prime Minister, in red and blue each weekend. We want a person, not a machine, in case that whole Kevin-thing had been forgotten. 
5. Get this boat thing sorted. Detail the scenario. Explain why we're not 'under threat'. Fucks sake, it's a long way overdue. Maybe do so by bringing those involved in the criminal dealings surrounding Tampa to a court. That means Liberal ministers of 2001. Let it happen. 
and
5. Slowly but surely remind us what the Labor party is for. What discriminates it from the other lot. It'll have to be a steady process in this hung parliament, but it must, must occur. We don't need another party of the centre right. We need a party that explains why Trade unions can be great. Why safety nets are actually critical. Why the cult of the individual is a soulless, brutal trap that renders us, collectively and ironically, individually, less satisfied and less useful. This country needs a little taste of duty to something bigger again. Start that conversation, by reminding us Labor leaners that it is a party worth believing in, worth working for. 


It's a good day. And I predict it'll last. And Labor will win in 2013 with a decent majority. And Gillard will be known as one of our best Prime Ministers. Mark my words. 

* Might be a bit of a stretch, that. He's probably more of a Don DeLillo kinda guy. 

The night before the night before repeat...

So I went on holidays, and thought better of updating this electronic gurgle- I lounged, I restored my horribly pallid complexion to something less cadaver-esque, I read two 'important' books of the moment (Easton Ellis' 'Imperial Bedrooms' left me a bit, you know? Like Less than Zero, that perfect affectedly unaffected first-person style was actually beginners luck, and the longer his career continues the more he is removed, through time and through trying, from what made him essential. Not that it's a bad book... It's more that there is a better book in there, somewhere. Whereas Franzen's 'Freedom' is just as good as the mounting pile of breathless adoration suggests, until the bird watching and eco-intrigue stuff starts, and I started to think that the grace and effortless 'summing-up' that had sent the previous several hundred pages past this reader so enjoyably got caught up in the now, in the 'I-am-saying-important-things-about-now'-ness of these latter sections that dragged a little. But it comes home strong and you should read it. On holidays. Away from Canberra.)

Just a few more days, then we'll get our own show. Or an X Factor judging slot. 

Via News

In Canberra, the musketeers talked, and talked some more, and generally annoyed the nation. But luckily (for them), they weren't the story, for Abbott's 'black hole/misunderstanding' hogged a lot of column inches. And with that, the papers pretty well called it. The Australian even, bouncing back from a new low of calling the Greens/Labor alliance something like the worst thing to happen to humankind since plague, lent toward the incumbent after Abbott, Hockey and Robb's late week shocker. The Lib's had a 'bad week.' But, as many pointed out, this is not the campaign, and a bad week in general play means little here. They still need only to appeal to an audience of three. 

Those editorials in all the major dailies have handed it to Labor, but the longer this has gone on, the more we should distrust anything we've read. Including these words here. All of them. The time the three are taking might indeed be due to a thorough process set in train last week. It might be due to a sense of covering all angles, giving the situation appropriate weight. Or it might be thanks to the situation looking like one where it would be now very difficult to back the Coalition due to the numbers and thanks to the vast, actually quite extraordinary misplacing of a lazy 7-to-11 billion shmackers, but want to, and hence are feeding the Tories enough rope. Maybe. We'll know tomorrow apparently, It will all be over. And then something else, probably something even more dramatic, will be begin.

9 & 10, Again Again!

I have so much to tell you. Really. Soon this blog will launch again, relaunch 8.0, with all the stuff I want to write about. A series of Canberra restaurant reviews, aimed at inviting local chefs to hunt me down (they're not very complimentary. And yet, factually correct). A series called 'How to make -insert film title, say, Inception, or the Ghost Writer- Better', where I will guide the reader through a collection of simple steps to improve filmic fare. Oh yes. Not to mention a bunch of record reviews and breathless missives on football. Exciting stuff I know. But today, it's about two party business. 

Gillard took the largest breath of relief around midday today, when the two party count again tilted her way. Before that, thanks to some AEC gymnastics, the Coalition snuck ahead. Fact is, they won't have final figures for some time, and they probably won't be terribly different to what they were before the AEC re-jigged the methods (Labor just pulling ahead). It's a long story as to why, and there are better people than me to explain the whole bit, but the point is that Gillard dodged an awkward one at lunch. 

Via ABC.

Her address was fine- it was measured and contained words and her ninja hands didn't go too crazy, but the point, the motivation, was missing. It was a speech for an audience of four, masquerading as an address for all of us. As Annabel Crabb noted, she only really shone when she got miffed. Can we have her, after all this is done, the one with some heart and wit? Can the independents put that on the wish list?

In the meantime, Abbott told his cabinet, in a horribly stage managed pow-wow, that they were a Government in waiting. Hubris, my little cycling amigo, careful with the hubris.