9 & 10, Again Again!

I have so much to tell you. Really. Soon this blog will launch again, relaunch 8.0, with all the stuff I want to write about. A series of Canberra restaurant reviews, aimed at inviting local chefs to hunt me down (they're not very complimentary. And yet, factually correct). A series called 'How to make -insert film title, say, Inception, or the Ghost Writer- Better', where I will guide the reader through a collection of simple steps to improve filmic fare. Oh yes. Not to mention a bunch of record reviews and breathless missives on football. Exciting stuff I know. But today, it's about two party business. 

Gillard took the largest breath of relief around midday today, when the two party count again tilted her way. Before that, thanks to some AEC gymnastics, the Coalition snuck ahead. Fact is, they won't have final figures for some time, and they probably won't be terribly different to what they were before the AEC re-jigged the methods (Labor just pulling ahead). It's a long story as to why, and there are better people than me to explain the whole bit, but the point is that Gillard dodged an awkward one at lunch. 

Via ABC.

Her address was fine- it was measured and contained words and her ninja hands didn't go too crazy, but the point, the motivation, was missing. It was a speech for an audience of four, masquerading as an address for all of us. As Annabel Crabb noted, she only really shone when she got miffed. Can we have her, after all this is done, the one with some heart and wit? Can the independents put that on the wish list?

In the meantime, Abbott told his cabinet, in a horribly stage managed pow-wow, that they were a Government in waiting. Hubris, my little cycling amigo, careful with the hubris.

Bored Bored Bored 7 & 8

Just one of the lovely folk at the Beck rally. Via Gawker.

There's plenty happening in the world. Pakistan provides an opportunity to test the Susan Sontag theory of compassion fatigue (otherwise known as a gentler reading of a lazy response to an immense, impossible to understand tragedy that actually might have something more to do with a kind of racism based on associating that nation with the 'terror' the west has been fighting all these last 9 years), while Glenn Beck mobilises the conservatives on the steps on the Lincoln Memorial 47 years after a somewhat more articulate and reasonable man mobilised the nation, and world, only 2 rungs higher on the same staircase. UK Labo(u)r move toward their next leader, the Tour of Spain has kicked off, and Carlton made the finals. Just. Plenty going on in the world, plenty to talk about aside from Australian politics.

Surely.

Alby Shultz has been on the phone to the independents to strong-arm their decision. Clever. Neilson have polled the nation re a republic (answer- no. Not now), while News and Galaxy have been polling the independents, twice this week, just to inform said indies that their electorates want a Coalition Government. See what they did there? Clever. On the front page of the Australian, the header reads 'Majority of Independents constituents back the Coalition'. The story continues inside, with the linking header 'Gillard flags Green alliance as Independents back Abbott.'  Ha! See what they did there? Super clever. I guess they could drop the type back a size and include the word 'constituents' to be, like, fair. Whatever.  Tony Windsor was quite rational on this matter this morning, and one expects that he'll remain so. But pressure mounts. From Murdoch, and from elsewhere.

Tony Abmaster is keen, apparently, to be PM. He appeared on Insiders, and was his usual, fluent, reasonable, balanced self.

BARRIE CASSIDY: Tony Abbott, good morning, welcome.

TONY ABBOTT: Morning Barrie.

BARRIE CASSIDY: What are you going to do about Alby Schultz?

TONY ABBOTT: Well Barrie look I'll come to Alby in a sec. But the bottom line is last weekend's election produced half a million more votes for the Coalition than for the Labor Party. And under those circumstances it defies commonsense that a corrupted Labor Government should be put back into power...

BARRIE CASSIDY: Well just before we go to Alby Schultz, on that point though surely we have a preferential system and you lost on the two party preferred vote?

TONY ABBOTT: Well but the bottom line is that the corrupted machine politics which got rid of Kevin Rudd has been totally discredited by this election. And the last thing we should see is this election putting back into power the same kind of faceless powerbrokers that have been utterly discredited and rightly discredited by this election result.

What a repulsive fucken bore.Getting to the message huh! Machine politics indeed. Focus grouped and wrapped in an inane paragraph. Repeat the central four lines. Critiscise the other side for exactly what both sides do. Repeat. Repeat.

A word on this 'machine politics' line. The Labor party is a machine. yes. But the Liberal party is a machine also. As are the Greens. As is the Sex Party. It's a smaller machine, but a machine nonetheless. All organisations are machines. Come on!

However, the reason that Labor has the tag is thanks to Bitar and Arbib, and a piece in yesterdays Australian (yep, with the requisite slant, but a worthwhile piece nonetheless) laid the NSW Labor Right bare. It brings up a worthwhile question- if Labor do form Government (and then win 2013 with a 4-6 seat majority, as Peter van Oslen perhaps amusingly called on Friday's 'Contrarians' program on Sky), will they lose the important opportunity to restructure their broken, and problematic for the nation, system?

See, another question worth asking is-what is the point of Labor right now? In the vacuum of loss between 1996 and 2007, instead of the party galvanising on the basis of ideology and commitment, it became an operation skilled at winning and maintaining state Governments. Each of the big three (Carr's NSW, Bracks & Brumby's VIC and Beattie & Bligh's QLD) looked like getting rolled, and pulled off quite stunning victories. Recent ACT, SA, TAS & NT Labor governments have stumbled and had to form minority Governments. But they've held on. And how? Through a strong set of ideas? No. Through good politicking. And by christ it is boring.  

So where are we? same place we've been, same place we'll be till the end of the week we assume. Labor 72 (or 73 including Adam Bandt), LNP 72 (or 73 if you include the rogue National, who will oppose a mining tax but will sit on the crossbenchs), 4/5/6 'other'. Either way you cut it, it's tied up, with four men calling the card. One of whom (Wilkie), doesn't really want to, and three who remain keen to do so. Ideally before they piss everyone off. 

Time after time 6- Level the playing fielding

Hey, departing Senator Steve Fielding. The budget for the financial year has already passed. So, on the advice of Anthony Green, you can't block supply. In light of that, and your latest, pathetic stunt, the nation says oh-do-fuck-off. The new senate cannot come soon enough.

Nobody wants to listen to little Stevie no more. Via Fairfax.

 More to come tomorrow!

End times 5- Tony Tony Tony!!!

Karl Bitar made the beginners mistake on the final, kinda underwhelming episode of the Chaser's Yes We Canberra last night- he ran. He was caught, pathetically, trying to slam the door on Reucassel, refusing to smile and play and nod and agree as per the memo he himself probably handed out to his colleagues should they get jumped. Bitar might've otherwise had a good night. Because the strategy we assume he had put in place (stay small and wait for an Abbot implosion) seemed to come true, a little late, but perhaps not too late. Last nights press conference and the stories of the day since have put the burners on the Coalition.

Tony- what crazy lurk beneath? Via Fairfax

It was a classic, withering, stuttering, aggressive performance from the man who might. Abbott seems to be fuelled by expectancy at the moment. While Gillard happily acquiesces, Abbott is pulling on the gloves. But he's picking a problematic fight, as the Independents have affirmed today. Katter squeaks 'what is he hiding'. Windsor suggests it's not off to a good start. Oakeshott has been quiet. And Andrew Robb has been dished out (not Abbott, not Hockey, which I guess if fair enough if you want to avoid putting kero on a flame), speaking about the criminal act of the leak during the campaign. It won't work.

Abbott knows it's a tough play, but as several editorials have noted, it's a calculated move. Remember in Donnie Brasco when Johnny Depp, undercover cop wearing a wire in his boot, beats the crap out of the Japanese waiter who asks him to remove his shoes before entering the restaurant as per the custom? That's what this is. The figures won't work. And Abbott knows that with three seats still in play, two of which are a likely win, he has to beat the crap out of the waiter lest he get found out and have everything fall in. If he gets his 73rd, that's his leverage. If it goes on and becomes a mess, with the constituents of the gang of three requesting a Lib Gov and the national interest turning to annoyance at these three kingmakers, then maybe we have another poll, and Abbott backs himself in such an environment. I'm not sure if that's right (expect part of that Greenslide to turn red if we go again) but that's what he's got.

In the meantime, BobKat is going global. A viral megamix isn't far away I'm sure.

Hammer time 4- Let's no longer even pretend

Pretend to know what in hell is going on I mean.

Wise men or stooges? Via Fairfax

Here's what seemed to happen. The three independents had a chat, or as BobKat might say, a yarn, or a chin-thump, or a begdraggle, or a fist-o-schmuck, or whatever collection of sounds first come into his plus-size head, and they came up with a plan. They then strode to a courtyard on a pathetically cold Canberra day and laid it all out. They've written a seven point plan. They want to see everything, speak to everyone, and figure who is full of it and who is marginally less full of it. They then went to the press club to speak on this and wider issues. They were joined by Adam Bandt, who is experiencing the biggest rollercoaster intro to Australian politics in some time. He was right to look scared of BobKat, who mixed pure sense with heartfelt rural conservatism and then some really loud shouting. 

The issues seem to be- friendliness, being nice, being open to crazy stuff, red team mixing with blue team making purple people eating team, so on. And access to everything. Everything. Including treasury costings, which apparently made Mr Abbott rather tense on Sky News this evening. I was watching Kerry O'B, but the twittering classes made many notes of Abbott's proclamation that public servants aren't to be handling important information like Treasury costing stuff. Forgetting that Treasury is full of public servants. Who balance the books. Unlike, we suspect, Mr Abbott and his shady finance posse who should've been hammered in the final week of the campaign.


All the sounds the independents are making sound like Labor-preferencing sounds, but big obstacles lurk- the conservative electorates from which they've emerged front and centre. But Gillard did well in her press call and agreed to all the demands. Now the three head home, returning to Canberra next week. And the nation, energised by possibility and the strangeness of the situation, are forced to wait some more. There is, I suggest, a window for conversation and change. But it won't be open long. The question is how patient will the nation be, and might they turn on these three, soon to four, and maybe five (the Tuckey-crushing National now considers himself a cross-bencher). As the count goes on, the focus will wane, and then what?

UPDATE 10:45
Ok- so you know how Karl Bitar and Labor were waiting and hoping for Abbott to make that Abbott error, the one where he spits it? Seems that presser mentioned above was far more critical than I thought. A game changer perhaps. Tony won't have Treasury access the books. Because? For, as BobKat said on Lateline, he looks pretty bad. Pretty bad indeed. Like he's hiding something. Or he wants another election. Not a smart move. As Arch Bevis storms home in Brisbane (and with Hasluck pretty well gone), that's Labor 73 (+ Adam Bandt), LNP 72 (- Tony Crook, maybe), 4 ind. It's all gotta go Labor's way, but Abbott is doing his best to help.

Injury Time 3- The Hokey-Pokey (With Bob & Oakey)

No need to be afraid Australia. Really. Via ABC

As the BobKat touched down in Canberra and held a fruity presser confirming many people's belief that the guy is first rate bonkers, the playing field up and tilted. Denison, after all that, may well go to the super-spy, while Corangamite, the hilariously monikered Victorian seat, slipped from the ALP's desperate paw back into contention. Brisbane remains a possible, and as always, Hasluck is the key. Except for the other keys. And any other on top of those, should a recount indicate that a bunch of ballots were stuck together, or left in the rain, or on top of the car, or down the back of the couch. The point? We're going to postals. Like going to penalties I guess, just less entertaining.

At the start of the day it was mathematically possible for Labor, should the gods smile (and why would they, but...), to call 75 seats their own. As the day closed, they were looking for a 73rd, 73 giving them a shot at vague legitimacy. While the three independents did the rounds and spoke of the nation, the national interest, a nicer gentler kinder polity, rural Australia, communications and health and education and all they want to see in this, their brief but potentially powerful week in the sun, the fact remains that without 73 Labor haven't got a shot.

Abbott knows this, and looked edgy at his press call today. The commentators didn't write about it, but I was struck by an ever so subtle bullying tone in Tone. It was the campaign again, full of terms that, if I were one of the three (or four) independents, would piss me well off. These chaps will not be told. And maybe it'll all, every last bit of it, come down to numbers and the not the conversations with the leaders planned for tomorrow. But for the moment, they want to suck the air in, and being told who is capable and stable (it remains the buzzword) won't do it. Neither side can prove it. Both sides can only continue praying. At least one of them is a believer.

Tardis time 2- Howes Young?

The most amazing thing about this evening's Australian Story? The bombshell that Paul Howes, the faceless man who appears on every TV program even hinting at politics spouting words with a cadence that worries those of us who dislike toss and focus-grouped weaselisms, is 28 years old. 28!

Paul Howes, with and without face. He is not an animal.

The wisdom of Howes' appearance on the program will be added to speculation on the wider Labor movement and its immediate health. One assumes that the profile was aimed at fleshing the human, putting a face on the faceless, and humanising the tough union thug. He was, we learnt, once homeless. He wept for the Beaconsfield miners. He is a, quote-unquote, 'decent bloke'. And Bill Shorten, tellingly, said that it made good sense to hire smarter people than yourself- so he hired Howes. Uh-huh.

Shorten, we were told in the SMH, is the most likely next leader of the ALP. The bookies have his odds 'shortest' (sorry), and the bookies are never wrong. Except for the weekend just gone. Of course, the problem is that, regardless of whether Labor forms a Government, Howes, Shorten, Arbib and Bitar smell. Morris Iemma will tell you so. As will Maxine, as will any number of folk desperate to launch on how Labor have arrived at this place. Gag orders have been issued, as looking like mates is critical to having a hope of forming a 'stable' Government (Stable is the new sustainable). But it'll come out. It will all be spilt.

The LNP isn't entirely rosy either- the Nats are a loud lot, and their relationships with the three independents will make discussions fruity. Seats are dropping in and out of contention. At this moment it looks like Denison will not be taken by the superspy, and Labor remain confident of winning Hasluck. The money is on 73-73, 3 ind, 1 Grn. And the bookies are never wrong are they?

Now all there is to do is settle in for Q&A. Without Mark Arbib, who has been pulled from the show at his leaders request. A good thing it is too. Some faceless men should remain exactly that, with no mouths to make sound with.

Anti-time 1- The Gloaming

WAYS TO WIN ELECTION 2013*
Assuming we don't have another one shortly...

All candidates from this point on will have to campaign for 36 hours straight on the final days. This indicates that you 'really want it'. It being the job, the Prime Minister thing.


WAYS TO LOSE, OR COURT SERIOUS TROUBLE
These are surefire, btw.

Via News.

• Roll your leader during the term, if it's the first term. Also:
• Roll your leader, then adopt a mousy voice and say 'look, everythings still ok!'
• Promise everything, use terms like 'root and branch' and 'greatest moral challenge' then do fuck all.
• Promise little, and look like struggling at even delivering that.
• Have state Governments that share your name that suck, hard.
• Take advice from fucktards, like Arbib, like Howes, so on. 
• Have a bunch of leaks from the leader you rolled during the campaign. 
  
  

GREENAGE
So were the Greens the real winners of Indecsion 10 (formerly Enforced Decision 2010)?

The ABC's graphics, when indicating the swing to the Greens (+3.4), reflected something about an eighth of the size of the LNP swing bar (their swing was 1.4). Many find it all a bit tough to take seriously. Maybe that's because Bob Brown used his tally room floor speech to dreamily inform Australia that days ago a baby whale was born in the Derwent. Maybe. And maybe the Greens can only take support from Labor. Maybe they'll never be mainstream mainstream. Maybe everything would be different if they supported the (flawed) ETS, in that we'd have one, we'd have a Labor PM this morning and his name would be Kevin. 

See, maybe if Labor hadn't been so gutless on the ETS, this result would be significantly different for the Greens. And yet, to believe that you must believe that this nation, conveniently, falls into two camps every three or so years, and regardless of variation (sometimes from the Democrats, or One Nation, or indeed Green), there is a loose centre left that spins outwards, and a centre right that does the same. More often than not that centre right gets the gong, but so on etc. Are we that simple? Does two party matter so much?


Julia thinks so. At her afternoon presser she speaks of having the moral high ground,  as Labor leads the two-party count. Abbott says they have said high ground, as they have received more primary votes. So it will go for some time. 


Opinion is mixed is who is more likely to form a Government- more lean toward a Gillard Labor govt, as Labor seem likely to win 73, maybe 74 seats (Andrew Wilkie is not assured of a win apparently), therefore needing the Green and two/three indies. It would appear that the LNP can only win 73 seats but look likely to only win 72, meaning they'll need all the independents and some luck. Said independents have been making noises on broadband and climate change. We still suspect they'll vote as a bloc. And don't they hate Barnaby? It all seems to points one way. And yet- and yet. It's easy enough to see the result as a rejection of the Government. And that can turn a mans mind can it not?


INDEPENDENCEY

If nothing else, these three make an interesting break from the political talking heads in this country. I hear nothing much aside from the word 'decent' being ascribed to both Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, and as tonight's special Sunday 7.30 again proved, Bob Katter makes for compelling viewing. I didn't understand a lot of what he said. He did use the term 'paradigm' on three occasions, which is nice- haven't heard that word so liberally applied since a first year Ethics class a while back. BobKat also spoke of sugar, of hating Barnaby, and having a fairly decent 'bulldust metre'. The rest, I dunno. But it was a brilliant stroke from the ABC to shoot him against a streetscape and Katter clearly knew how to fill the frame, arms crossed, serious suit, his white bonce glimmering in the Queensland evening. Their time has come, and they all seem to be up for it. 


So, in extra time section 1, it's about Hasluck. Without it, Labor seem to finish on 72. Most are giving Denison to Wilkie, although I understand there's some conjecture on that front. But Brisbane has again slipped beyond Labor, meaning it's all about the postals in Hasluck. And Labor folk are quietly confident of hitting the front and staying there after a solid postal campaign. With it, and with 73, Labor seem to have the authority. Abbott will suggest that Labor does not have such authority, but big swings and overwhelming the low expectations aside, there is the tough fact that the nation didn't exactly embrace him either.  Either way, we won't know for up to a week says Antony Green. What a strange anti-climax- it's almost offensive. But there's a process at work, one assumes, and as it goes process itself is being assessed and questioned. And annoyingly, I feel compelled to continue doing so here. I'd love to resume normal life, actually get some work done, so on, but I, like those three indies, will wrap myself in the national flag and tap away, bringing further inanity to you as it happens. Sit tight Australia. 

Day 36/ Day Zero- Love your democracy, no matter...

Oh how I love me this day. How I love the taste of the sausage from the Lyneham Primary School fete. It's the taste of democracy. How I love politely but pointedly refusing particular how to vote cards (a subtle roll of the eyeball and a semi- subdued snort, a 'do I look like a pathetic creep? I think not, fucktard' But nicely, mind...). And how I love my little city on these days- engaged, chuckling, switched-on. A kid behind me, surely no more than 5, says, loud and proud, 'I'm not voting for Tony Rabbit- he looks.... wrong. And his ears are too big.' Then a pause, while he waits for his audience to stop chuckling, before he adds 'If Juuuuuuliah doesn't get any votes, does that mean that it's game off?'. Who cares if he's been schooled by his folks to plant such messages. I love me some Canberra on election day.

Gillard has stolen Nicola Roxon's child to help her chances. Via ABC.

The day started well for me- news of a favoured artiste releasing a new EP, through the power and wonder of the internets. That, followed by a listen, a vote, some folks and coffee and some reading. What a decent little place we have here, I might've thought, if I could shake the feeling that everything might be different on Sunday. But the mood was not one of change. It'd be tight, but it'd be a win for Labor.

The weekend papers contained some points of interest. In the SMH, a small sidebar noted an editorial written for the Thursday Australian suggested Australia vote Labor. Then they received the Newspoll, 50-50, and they re-wrote it, supporting the LNP. Murdoch's Aus don't want to be seen backing a Labor loser. Much more comfortable with a tory loss. Meanwhile, Richo wrote a column in the Aus noting the leaks, and how he has no proof that it was Rudd's fault, but Rudd was wrong to leak that stuff and his staffer, not that he's saying Rudd or his staff had anything to do with it, but his staffer who leaked it should take a long holiday very far away.

Some hot chicks with a gay, churchy loser. Via News

There was news of Labor campaign helpers in Penrith, David Bradbury's seat which is apparently under immediate threat from boat people, wearing shirts sans any kind of Labor branding, in the same blue as the Libs. Abbott got on the radio to speak of the disgusting deception at play. Sadly the ABC didn't carry any reportage of reports that Lib helpers in Queensland were wearing Green t shirts, which read 'Voting Green?'. I guess the question mark made it clear, and not at all deceitful. 

The ABC, when it came round to 6pm, continued this slant. Kerry spoke of dismay and collapse. Uhlmann spoke of panic and trouble. Nick Minchin spoke with a big smug face. What gives ABC? The exit polls say 51, 52 ALP. Not convincing, but slanted one way. Just like the betting- at 6, it was around $1.39 ALP, $2.42 LNP. Follow the money they say. We wait.

UPDATE 9:04
Jesus- are y'all fucken kidding me? It looks hung. With Andrew Wilkie?! Whistleblowin' Wilkie?!! Amazing...

UPDATE 10:31
It's hung- no way past it now, unless some extraordinary twists occur. Four independents, one Green. So how does it fall? Is it based on two-party, or primary vote numbers? Is it via the old school rule of the incumbent having first crack at forming a gov, then handballing to the Opp if they can't come to an agreement? Or is it formed, as suggested by Bob Katter moments ago on the tele, that it'll come down to whoever allows rural Australia to florish- i.e. not on the national interest, but the primary interest of one, or five candidates?

The fact that there are three ex Nats suggests a slanting toward the Libs, but they are ex Nats for a reason. Because they disagreed with something critical in that party machine. The Green, and Andrew Wilkie (!), would side with the ALP, one would assume. But who knows.

Right now, Tony Windsor is calling for calm mediation on the issue. Will Australia cope without a Government for these next few days? Will the streets burn?

Now Rob Oakeshott is talking about getting a decent phoneline up- 'you don't have to be Einstein to see that's a big issue'. Calls it a stimulus package for democracy. He might have a point there...

In the meantime, Julia has yet to appear in the vast Melbourne Convention Centre party. She's apparently, says Steve Bracks, 'doing ok'.

UPDATE 11:35
Ok. Numbers are sliding back and forth. Labor may win Brisbane after all, but Hasluck looks gone, Boothby unlikely, and Denison, the potential win for superspy Wilkie, up in the air. Gillard's speech was a good one- one that would've gone down well in tone and intent during the campaign. Real Julia indeed.

While we wait for Abbott to speak, some possibilities:
ALP 73- LNP 72 IND 4 Grn 1. Add the Green and the spy to the ALP and the 3 Nats to the LNP and we have 75-75. So, another election?
Or
ALP 72- LNP 72, with the independents somehow heading toward the ALP. Which would look a little unstable.
Or
ALP 74- LNP 72 IND 3 Grn 1 (there being a chance that Wilkie might not get up- it's all about a weird preference share). Hard for the independents to go with anyone but Labor. Unless they suggest we go to the polls again. But if we go again and get a similar result, what then? And then, what then?

There's one thing for it- splash blame around.

Put simply, Abbott has put in a blinder to even be in the game. The Libs have done well to fall behind him. 'People skills' has proved himself far more adept at the process than Labor clearly thought.

The key point, maybe, is that on top of all the palava regarding the changeover, is that the Labor campaign has been a fucken shambles. Outside of the leaks, this campaign aimed low and came up shorter. The debate debate, the slogan, the idea of making this about 'risk', and jobs and broadband, instead of the economy's strength, the wins of the parties first term, was insane. Stephen Smith has just said in his usual magnificent measured tones, that the avoiding of recession is an abstract notion- it's tough to sell what we don't have. But it's more than that. It's the Real Julia factor. It's the ugly cash spill in Western Sydney. It's been a pathetic Labor campaign. Karl Bitar, architect thereof, should be reconsidering his options.

At 11:46, Abbott emerges through the scrum. He's feted like a winner. I guess, considering the form, the expectations, he is. He is flanked by his ladies (see? He's a normal family guy! Married! With kids! Hello Australia!). It's a night for pride, satisfaction, and measured reflection he says. There should be no premature triumphalism. Just a great night for the Australian people. I feel humbled, he says. He's flirting with hubris. He offers some thanks.  His kids look mortified. Fearful. And tall. He is so proud of the first Indigenous Member of Reps. Yep. He acknowledges his opponent. Not well. And again says its a win for us. The Australian people (How do you figure that, champ?). What is clear, he says, is that Labor have lost their majority. And that the Government has lost its legitimacy. And a Govt who couldn't govern with a majority of 17 can't govern in a minority. Ouch. Then he gets his slogan on. The people have rejected factionalism. He's going on. And looking like a winner. The coalition, he says, is back in business. Stable, predictable, competent government.  A final shout out to family, and the people of Warringah. At 12:00 he's gone.

Maxine is gone. Wilson Tuckey is gone. Steve Fielding is gone. And the count goes on.

Day 35- And what have we learnt, Australia?

This morning everyone's talking about the Newspoll (2 party 50-50, with another installment in tomorrow's paper) and the Galaxy poll (52-48 to the ALP), and they're saying the same thing. It's close. Too close to call even! Many predict a close Labor victory, then qualify that with a second chance option of a hung parliament, with Labor returned via Green support (assuming Melbourne will fall Green). Oh it's close. Said closeness is reflected in the Labor poll that dropped, mysteriously, to all radio and TV and papers yesterday. And the popular mail on that 'leak' is: Labor want you to know it's close (have I mentioned how close it is?). So they're pointing out how a casual Labor voter, assuming Labor will sneak in and giving the Libs a protest vote, just a light kick in the ass, might lose the whole shebang for the party they ostensibly support. So, the leaked poll says, your protest vote could have disastrous consequences. Disastrous!

It's a close run thing. It's in the marginals. It's the same thing we've been saying and reading since the leaks of week two crushed Labor's primary vote and exposed a party in all states of crazy. What have we learnt then? Why is it so close? How has it come to this?

Let's go back in time.....

Remember the week of the coup? It was the assumed final sitting week of the 42nd Parliament, with two stories leading the reportage- that an election would be called shortly, probably for October 23 or 30, and that there was chatter of a party room rolling of PM Rudd. Rudd was polling around 51, 52 two-party. A huge drop for a man without friends in the caucus. It was assumed that something might happen on the Monday of that week. And on that Monday, Rudd had a party room meeting and nothing happened. The pundits said-ok, no coup. He's survived. Rudd had a good day on Monday, and on the Tuesday. He was effective in the Parliament. And yet, it was a classic fake- a pysche from Arbib and Howes and the NSW right. On the Wednesday night it went mental, and on Thursday we woke with a new PM. Gillard took the photo ops and spoke well. She was brilliant in Question Time, which I attended in person, getting in ahead of maybe 500 people who were left outside the chamber, keen to see the history.

Thing is, the history was already tainted. Did anyone expect such a touching, human speech from a man widely known as the Ruddbott? Did anyone expect him to show up, on the backbench, in QT? And did Labor realise the sheer carnage that this decision would cause?

After the ructions of Hawke/Keating and the damage of the Howard/Costello 'partnerships', there seemed to be a thought that getting these things done, ripping the band-aid off, was the new way forward. These being accelerated times and all. But for that to work, everything had to go well for Labor. And it has not. Clearly.

Labor's problem has been threefold. Firstly, a Prime Minister was elected on a wave of goodwill, with excitement. The nation, we were told, had changed. We had recognised that the ambient soul of the nation, the stuff that doesn't pop up in polling and rational, scientific assessment, had been tainted by the Howard era. And here was a man with a desire to keep the books steady whilst re-establishing a kinder place. Rudd had the mandate. And Rudd didn't make it work. It was Climate Change primarily, but it was an inability to be seen to be working on the difficult pledges, the leadership questions. He had a chance to reframe the immigration question and did not. He didn't follow through on the 'root and branch' tax reform paper to a level that justified the effort and the noise of that review. He became a figurehead for weasel words. he was just as dull as his predecessor, but without the conviction. And conviction became the key word, strangely. Suddenly it was more important to believe in something, in anything, regardless.

Secondly, that dislike of Rudd did not translate into an understanding of why he was no longer Prime Minister. In this presidential style of campaigning, the nation somehow feel that they voted for Rudd. They never did of course- they voted for Labor. But Labor's story was Rudd's story, and without that leader explaining why he had done what he had, and had not done, they became Rudderless (ahem).

And thirdly, the campaign has not engaged. It has pushed people further away from political process. The election for marginals has never been so obvious. And since Labor has not stuck its neck out, has not lead and sought to convince, it looks lame. It needed to sell its victories- and it has had several. Many have expressed amazement at a place in the economic shape this place is even thinking of turfing a first term Government. But that story is tainted by pink batts and expensive school halls. Labor wedged itself in getting rid of a toxic leader.

More than all that though, is what this says about us, here and now. Is it just me, or is there a feeling that Tony Blair could pay in the not too distant future for his work post 2001? Not just through Polanski films, but through the people of Britain. They seem disgusted by that period in their nations life. Bush will escape serious scrutiny, as Kissenger has before him, but Blair might have some hard days in European courts soon. And our country is associated. The early noughties (what a horrible term btw) seem to be a time we're still to make full sense of. But certainly something in this place changed. Howard, in seeing a political opportunity in Tampa and making a policy in light of that that stemmed a year of terrible polls and gave him another term in office, shifted the nation not just to the right, but to somewhere less engaged and connected to itself, to notions of community. This isn't simply a cry from the left, but a recognition of how we seem to regard each other, how we live, what we do with our time. Social capitalism had won. Duty to nation and community had been usurped in favour of spending, of protecting one's investment, one's home, one's stuff. There are forces out to get us, so lets board the place up. And Labor had a chance to re-set that thinking just a little in 2007, and they failed. Tony Abbott seemed to be a farcical choice in 2008. Less so in 2009. And today, he's a possible- a very possible Prime Minister.

We've never been near as open, as relaxed and as decent as we've given ourselves popular credit for. Perhaps no place is. National identity is a brand. It's an ad campaign. It never fully expresses the extent of a place, and nor can it. But the idea of Australia and the reality of it seemed to be more divided than before around 2001, and through the decade. So it remains.

So what have we? And what will happen? Is Politics increasingly irrelevant? It seems so. For this is a culture of 'what's in it for me'. Labor people quote Chifley a lot, his light on the hill, but modern Labor has little to do with all that. Modern Labor, like Blair's New Labor, is about power. That's not exactly revelatory, but it sticks in the proverbial of people who join the party at 18 full of ideals and inspired by Chifley and Curtin and Whitlam, who recognise the balance struck by Hawke and Keating between economics and social responsibilities, civic duty, a sense of worth delivered by putting yourself out. Modern Labor isn't really worth the effort. Conservative politics appeals to the passing voter maybe because it has the look of 'meaning it', even if the 'it' is less than savory.

A Gillard government can re-set all this. It can look forward to a Hockey-lead Coalition, a Green senate, and if it acts on Climate Change (in what would be known as 'the good backflip') it can win some hearts. Gillard is the right person- she's personable and she's steady. Simply having her as PM could make us feel like we're progressive. Once we've voted 'for her'. Once she's ours.

Will she become ours?

My feeling is that Labor will win with a majority of 4-6 seats.

UPDATE- 12:40
Wait a minute. Why don't things feel right? Is it the terse mood of the PM at her morning presser? Was it the heckler at bennelong, as she released doves? Is it the idea of realising fucking doves a day before closest election in memory? Or is it these financials, whacked on the ALP web site, sans a presser, making all Swan's protestations earlier this week look, in a headline sense, pretty shoddy? What gives?

I'll update this during the day if anything significant happens. And I'm revising that figure. First number is always the best number, but the day isn't going so well for Labor. 2-4 seat majority.

Also, Labor will keep Eden Monaro, but lose Bennelong. Maxine, I await your tell-all book.

UPDATE- 16.24
Labor are panicking, apparently. I don't know how that actually materialises, but it's being said. Chris Uhlmann says Abbott, today, has momentum. Everyone's commenting on his 36hr no-doze festival. I wonder how Uhlmann will be read once his wife takes her place in the Reps as a Labor member. Annabel Crabb says if she was betting with her money, she'd back Labor to win, just. But if she had your money, she'd back Abbott. 

UPDATE 11:07

Ok- two polls. Newspoll remains 50-50 says a smug Denis Shanahan on Lateline ('my work is almost done!!!'), but as Peter Hartcher points out while he offers tomorrows Neilson (52-48), of the last 10 phone polls, this Newspoll is whack. Considering those 10, it's tough to see anything but a tight Labor win. But we shall see. As stated previously, you know something? It's gonna be close.

Good luck Australia.

Day 34- 24, 36, Tweet tweet tweet

Let me first say this- there have been a slew of short posts lately. I know. I'm sorry. But what to say? What to say of this ongoing tragicomic bore? Tomorrow I will offer a state of the nation, a look at what it means, all the answers wrapped in lovely electronic type. But that is tomorrow, and today is another short missive. Because the action of the day requires it. Another day of bugger all. 

Gillard addresses the Press Club and goes down a treat. She speaks on cynicism, on the circus, on the way forward. Yet again, the delivery is strong, the message not so much. In other words, she is good at this job but her party, and her party line, is pathetically muddled. If she wins she will have to clean a lot of mess. But, one gets the impression from this style of oration, an especially given her ability under questioning, that she has the skillz. 

In the meantime, Abbott announces that he's not sleeping till Brooklyn, just like Cameron did in the UK shakedown. Except, Cameron, in doing so, looked young, looked up for it, looked like something Gordon Brown wasn't. Here, it looks desperate. Or so I thought earlier this evening. But every news broadcast leads with it. Tony is going all night. Tony wants the job. Julia won a meat tray just outside Newcastle, and played pool and drank beer and soon will be asleep. Tony is on a ferry in Manly as I type, and will trawl the aisles of Neutral Bay Woolies at 3am, and maybe the Shell servo after that, and then off for a ride and so on. Maybe it's not so desperate. Maybe that, with the news of the latest Newspoll at 50-50 (which I can't quite believe...), could swing some buck toothed Barry in the electorate of West Swingbags, who sees all this and says 'that bloke wants the job- Imma give it up im'. Maybe. Just maybe. 

It's not the feeling I have though, overall. There are other stories- Joe Hockey proving why he'll be a poor Lib leader should he get the chance, the latest pratfalls (hideous ones) of the Democrats, so on. But not for now. Tomorrow, a state of the nation. And a prediction. That's right. But unlike Tony, I'm for sleep. I'm a believer. Especially for our political classes. Look what happened to the last leader who never slept, huh?

Day 33- Return to Rooty

A day of debt and 'debate'- the debate that never happened, and the forum that did. Gillard 'wins' what the twits called RootyQ at the Broncos leagues club (heart of the political nation), but Abbott, by both rejecting a debate on the economy after all that guff and through releasing his budget costings at 4:45 (instead of the planned 3:00pm launch), looks a little shady.

The Coalition have found a bunch of spare cash, so said Jumpin Joe and the A-Robb at a late presser. They even brought graphs and spreadsheets. Couple billion down the back of the couch. A few more by rolling out a dial-up internets facetube network instead of the super expensive geekband idea that frankly does their heads in. All this independently assessed, not through those treasury hacks- the same hacks they'd have to run the thing through if they did form Government. And over and over, they promised that they had provided a plan so that punters could indeed compare apples with apples. Sure, one set of apples were granny smith and the other were some dangerous middle-eastern hybrid, but broadly speaking, everything was within the wider apple family of fruit. Trusts us they said. We're the ones who save money. It's reputational. 

RootyQ provided little enlightenment, except the proof that, like the duckworth-lewis system in cricket (used to ensure a result in one day matches affected by rain, through a complicated and stupid system of maths), the advantage of going last is real. Gillard took to the floor and thankfully had a hand held microphone hindering her florid hand gestures. She did fine. Abbott did fine too and came up short. There's a theme emerging there. Small targets, with one looking better, if diminished.

Day 32- Time to waste

What a stupid day. So close to the end, with rather high stakes, and the story of the day is the debate about the debate. Whatever high ground Gillard had on this seems to have disappeared as she appears to be bouncing back, looking a little haughty. She was a fool to avoid the initial debate request and this is valuable ground she has since lost. Mark Riley on Ch 7 says that it'll lose her the election. Mark Riley has clearly been drinking, but it's a bad look. Bob Brown stepped forward to call it a farce, and he was right. 

It's not only the debate providing the dumb- the lead story on the Fairfax news sites is on Gillard's big lie- that she actually used notes for the speech that others had said was off the cuff. She didn't say that herself, but the story has somehow cut through. The evidence? This here photo. 

To be fair, the notes were less than exhaustive. 

Stupid stupid stuff. 

Abbott hits 7:30Reportland for the third and final time and suffers again at the hands of a man who clearly thinks the opposition leader is a fucktard. Nothing too troubling, no huge clangers as per 'gospel truth' or his mis-steps on broadband last week, but he was again uncomfortable, shifty and keen to get out of there. By the end of a very long 20 minutes and by the way he signed off, it was clear that Mr Rabbit thinks little of red Kerry too. 

Highlight of the thing was a beautiful piece of timing from la Gillardine, who dropped a press release saying she'll be there tomorrow night to debate, and she'll be happy to appear onstage in the community forum after- after Mr Rabbs. With any luck, that'll be at the end of a more meaningful day than this.

Day 31- Yes we what?

Abbott makes his first appearance of the campaign on my personal wake-up program, breakfast with Fran Kelly. And these exchanges, roughly transcribed, took place. For real.

On the refusal to debate the PM this Wednesday.
ABBOTT: I’m happy to take questions on the economy but this should be a peoples forum, not a politicians forum… what about giving the people a chance?

FRAN KELLY: What’s wrong with a bit of both though… You seem to be running scared of debating the PM on the economy

ABBOTT: No…

FK: So you will do it?

ABS: Um, I think we should have another peoples forum… why is Julia Gillard refusing to give the people of Queensland what she gave the people of NSW?

FK: She can ask in response ‘why isn’t Mr Abbott willing to debate the economy?’

ABS: Well, you can ask me some questions on the economy…. But I reckon any government willing to put a great big new tax on the mining industry…. Carbon tax…. Is not a government that has serious economic credentials

FK: See it looks to me, and I suspect a lot of people in the electorate, that both leaders want to keep the format that suits them…. It’s the format that’s the issue for you isn’t it, not the scheduling problems?

ABS: Well I think we had a very good peoples forum here in Sydney last week…

FK: That’s because you won it!

Uh huh, Later, he is quizzed on mental health experts have exhibited concern over the duty of care issues surrounding detainees on Nauru. Abbott’s response?


Abbonater: If you talk to people on the island,… the asylum seekers who were there virtually had the run of the island


FK: Well the doctors who were there are saying there were extreme issues of mental illness, mental wellbeing


Abmaster2000: But the people who were put into the detention centres on Nauru basically had the same life of the islanders there, they had they had the run of the island, except for a curfew at night they had the same life as the islanders there.



Really?! The run of the island?!! Oh! See, I thought it was something else. Something less than ideal, or decent. But apparently it was a beach party!

A Gilligans episode, with special guest star Phil ‘DJ Philly Phil’ Ruddock.

I ask you.










I LAUNCH MYSELF, I WANT YOU TO LOVE ME

Democratic convention 2008

Labor launch 2010

Jeez, austerity makes crap television doesn’t it? These Democratic conventions are carnivals. The Labor launch was a lamington drive at the CWA headquarters in Brisbane, because I guess we can’t be seen to be spending money. Was it any good?  Was it heck! Kinda!

Opening with Wayne Swan is a strategy rock bands employ all the time- get an opening act who will make you look good by comparison. One of the worst speakers in living memory. Hawkie, on the other hand, began his pitch talking about making sensible investments. Investments. And in doing so, charmed the pants of a decent slab of the nation. By god- personality! He was a little shaky, a little pointy, not quite the powerhouse of 1983. Oddly, he quotes Lee Kuan Yew by way of explaining ‘form’ on the economy, and his own rescue of the Australian coffers in 1983, saying, a little too forcefully. "We would become the poor-white-trash….of Asia! And I copped that when I came into office in 1953” 53- 83. No matter. Dude is old. But entertaining. He works well. Bottom line of Hawkie- ‘generations of neglect by the Tories, having it put right by Labor.'  And he introduces 'a friend, a babe, a women I would’ve probably done at least a couple of times in the 70s but now is someone who I hope will beat my record of longest serving Labor PM, here she is, shake your money makers, it’s your Australian idol Prime Minister, Julia-Fucken-Gillard!'

Gillard thanks Hawkie, and gets right to acknowledging the K-Rudd, ‘a man of great achievements and with great achievements to come’. Then goes to mentioning Whitlam, who can’t be there on account of being 600 years old (and yet, sharper than all of us. He’s the tall Yoda), and Paul Keating, who couldn’t be there on account of hating Hawkie.


Friends, Julia wants to speak from her heart. About the importance of work. The transformative power of education. Courtesy and respect in times of need. And in moving forward with confidence. That our best days lie in front, not behind us.

Not everything has gone to plan (you gotta say that, slayer!), but look at us now- no recession, low employment, inflation under control. Look at us! We’re beautiful! Dear god feel our resplendence, our golden tone, our lithe belly and upper arms, our slender ankles and healthy eyeballs!


But to go on, we need proper plans for the future, and I have them. I have them. In a little baggie. Just here, behind the lectern. Do you want to see my plans?

I can’t hear you!

Well ok then!


Jobs economy work schools blah. That’s kinda it. Except for the closing refrain. Not moving forward (it only got two outings in the whole speech). Today's missive is from Chifley, via Obama. Yes we will. Yes we will. You like that Barry?

Yes he does.

LATER- THE NIGHT FOR NERDS
What fun for the tragics- Gillard on 7:30, a 4 Corners elction special, and Abbott on Q&A. But it all begins early, with Ab's calling a conference for 7:15, and at 7:40 something finally agreeing to a debate. Not a town hall debate, but something in the ABC studios. Whatever. He'll be hitting the books. 

Gillard on 7:30 is something of a non-event. O'Brien didn't seem to go hard, even though the questions dealt with Rudd, with cabinent process and spending rollout stuff. It flowed quickly enough, and Gillard emerged unscathed.  

I wouldn't say the same for Abbott and Q&A. First he gets owned (pwned? Is that how the tech heads say it? LOLOMGWTF!) by a geek on broadband. Then he responds stiltingly to a video question about time travel and trams. He recieves a long hop from a plant (surely!) on the BER spending and plays it square for a single. And then..... and then, an old Lib serviceman throws a beautifully placed yorker on rights for homosexuals. Abbott says that there are lots of terrific gay relationships, but marriage isn't right. He said 'I know some gay people... really well... I do Tony, I really do'. And he digs it out. Until the questioner gets a another crack. His son is gay, and he's pissed off that his son is without rights. His name is Geoff and he's the first hero of the night. 


There's more on spending, on welfare, etc, and he never quite looks settled. I asked last week how many people watched Q&A and later found that it was seen by just under 900 000 viewers. Not Masterchef big, but significant. He pushes his paid parental point, calls it a workplace benefit instead of welfare even though the Gov would eventually pay for it. A weird Kevin Rudd impersonator has a go at starting a comedy career and fails. Abbott gets hit with an environment question and says you should ask the Prime Minister, then babbles. Then babbles some more. There is more on health, on GP super clinics, and a nicely pointed question on big tobacco, donations and plain packaging. Stumbles terribly. The boatphone question gets a run. Muslims are addressed, a final question on his faith, and it's over. Twitter crashes on my machine, and its goodnight. Not a complete failure, but not at all a win. These questions over the format of the debate will rage tomorrow, and he'll need a blinder. Maybe. Or maybe those marginals like what they saw, as they too hate boats and find poofs a bit hard to deal with.

Day 30- Depends on your size...

The walrus gets Julia and Cassidy gets Abbott, but the news is the Galaxy poll that runs counter to the last few offerings from Newspoll and Nielson. The headline? Libs are actually infront, thanks to several marginals. The body copy? 4000 polled in 17 key seats, where the swing is enough to give the Opposition the house on their own. The fine print? Over all those seats, the 4000 (which sounds large and conclusive does it not?) actually breaks down to around 200 polled per seat. A poll becomes a poll, as I understand it, when the sample number is over 400. This is not an exhaustive poll. It might be good for Labor though, giving them a target to fight in this final week, ensuring no one is complacent.

Abbott suggests another Rooty Hill style showdown in Qld, and Julia says sure- as long as the first section of the night is a debate on the economy. Abbott says no. It's a great wedge from Abbott, and an equally great counter wedge from the PM. How will it look? It would seem to these 4 eyes that Abbott will suffer- Julia is giving him what he wants, and he's still running from the economy. But maybe the same can be said for the PM's refusal to just accept something in which she suffered from last week. It's a tough ol game, this claim and counter claim stuff. Takers a lot of energy, energy that might be otherwise used for ideas. Btw, the twits following Abbott spoke of his presser this afternoon, where he took only 12 questions, and would not explain why he wouldn't debate her realness. The twits were unpleased by the performance. The word pathetic was repeatedly tweeted.

Speaking of pathetic

I first heard of Mark Latham when I was a wee young thing, reading a Good Weekend article sometime in the 19th century which suggested he was the next great Labor man, the son of Chifley and Whitlam (shared test tube I spose), the chosen true believer. What a fucken joke he has become. I wrote a few days ago that he can veer from making the most pure sense to coming up all crazy on yo ass within a blink. Well, I was being polite. These last few days, indeed these last few outings since he implored Rudd to 'man up' and own the leaks, have been nothing but displays of ugly, bitter illness. It was either Andrew Denton or Chris Taylor who said, when interviewing him some years ago, that he seems to absolutely breathe the old Labor ideal, and yet be unable to communicate it- to indeed, be in polite company and play the requisite games. Which was shorthand for- you're a bit bi-polar fella, grab some help. And so it has gone and so he is. 

Gimmicky, moi? Via Fairfax.

Thing is, there might be something in the message for viewers of 60 Minutes. The politicians are stage managed! They're not fair dinkum! They've got no ideas! Stuff of rare insight champ. Except, once again, you're not the man to tell that story- because you're the man that once signed a big cheque. Your biggest policy success involved mandatory reading to children (where you, sir, participated in several photo-ops, just like the ones you ridiculed this evening). If it had been spun as a story of ones man's emergence into the light, after being manhandled by the machines, a mea culpa, a true look behind the curtain, that might've done something. But Latham's ego is far too vast for such apologies, and the take away messages were- at least Pauline Hanson was real, and you all should vote donkey. Tonight's stab for attention for this stay at home dad (what a delight it must be to live in that house!) was odious. Just horrible. Yes, he made points- he can do that. We all can. It's neither here nor there when his lack of grace poisons all he says. Go away.

Day 29-Philosophical Interlude: A New Green?

I was a little concerned, 213 years ago when this campaign began, that the Greens were going to call this their 'Clegg' moment, their Lib Dem push from third party comparative obsolescence to main stage 'playas'. Not because the Australian system doesn't require such a third, competitive force in both the upper and lower house, but because the Greens aren't ready, and that might otherwise harm a party that will hopefully become something more significant in the next several years.

Big Bad Bob- Via News.

The Greens have become a more significant, measured party in recent times, but retain a reputation of a reactionary party who don't yet have a suite of policies to appeal beyond their base. In many ways, that's ideal- they're passionate and bold, and like or loathe them, their position is clear. But, since the demise of the Democrats, we have lacked a cohesive voice that can occupy the centre left. It'll take some sidestepping, but the Greens could occupy that space, and we'd be the better for it.

Thing is, Bob Brown, for all his commitment and poise, is looking tired. Not tired enough to be put to pasture, but too tired to start a big push. The push toward proper third-party action, and for the Greens to possibly temper some of the policy angles which will always thwart their cause, requires a new face.

To seriously to compete for lower house action, they might consider a subtle re-brand. Brown would need to pass the baton, thereby proving that it is possible to handball leadership in a dignified manner. To whom is the question, for Scott Ludlam lacks gravitas, Christne Milne possesses a voice that strips paint, and Sarah Hanson-Young occupies a space between the two- her appearances on Q&A this year have left her looking minor.

Able deputy Clegg.

The Lib-Dem/Tory coalition is a thing that is worth watching. As excited as planet Earth was for Obama, his presidential story so far is much of a muchness- a difficult congress, a fuddled record, an inability to sell the good work that has gone on. But the British coalition is an emerging case study in the potential redundancy of partisan politics. It's early still, but this kind of Government might provide an interesting study in this nation, as more and more become disengaged by the two majors. There's only a 1000 flaws in my argument, but, do we really think that things are working out with the Labors and the Liberals?