Day 17- The real slim lady

Your job is safe Barry, I promise. Via Fairfax.

Day 17, sure, but day 1 of the real Julia campaign. Which is fine, and probably good for Labor (the Gillard that we get moments before the official speeches where she's talking to the media is funny, warm and charming. The Julia in the speech is staccato, stage managed and wooden), but what a dangerous strategy, giving the opposition a bunch of 'can you trust her' style line opportunities. Still, maybe there's nothing else that can be done. As Phillip Coorey says in the SMH, "All that the last two months has shown is that the flaws within Labor run deeper than Rudd. The inability to defend itself and land blows on the opposition, and silly policies such as the citizens' assembly, demonstrate this."


Newspoll has the 2 party at 50-50, confirming the trend. Someone might add that after the week Labor has had, to be at 50-50 isn't too bad. If you consider flesh wounds trifling, that is. The SMH election blog has this graphic, which shows that it's not calamitous, but it's not a good look for the Government.

Time to start wondering about what all this is telling us. On the one hand, it's a small target campaign that is boring us, frustrating us. On the other, jesus! It's a first term Government, with a new leader, who guided a nation through a a pretty rough money downturn thing, that seems unable to sell itself. Maybe because selling itself is selling Rudd. Or maybe because it's also a Government that stuffed a few key things and forgot to do a few others, like the stuff that they suggested they would in 2007. Maybe. But the speed of all this is quite something.


This is the first real social media election- while Kevin used the platforms well in 07, they were still fresh- the intervening years have been the years where the wider populace have accepted these methods of receiving information. Like anything, we've grown used to the speed by which things proceed. So, the news metabolism has quickened, and we've become used to slimmer pickings since. Perhaps one term Governments will become more familiar. Maybe we'll have two PM's per term. Maybe. For on the one hand things are quickening, and on the other the people are moving further away, caring less. Howard was very good at killing issues by repetition and boredom. He's set a template that no one on either side has had the stones to shift. And it's a pity.

LATER
And the real Julia says 'why not' to another debate, this Sunday. It just so happens that the Libs had booked the night for their campaign launch. Your call Tones. Bob B is keen too (it's my Clegg moment! What shall I wear?!) . The pundits aren't super-keen on this realness guff, across all the papers and programs I can spy. But it's a better day for Labor. Or at least, not a completely horrific one. Annabel Crabb, as usual, writes the most entertaining round-up of the current action. And yet, on Twitter around 2pm, Dennis Atkins notes that an Essential Poll has Labor 54-Lib 46 two party. And I see no reference to this in any papers or TV. Is an Essential poll a bad poll? A poll not bankrolled by major news organisations? Maybe it's old, maybe it's rogue. Hells, maybe there'll be three more leaks tomorrow and Julia will give up. But today feels a little, just a little different. And Abbott looks like a man waiting for a hit. Whether he can handle it is the question. 

LATER STILL
The SMH election blog tells me that Essential Polls are online things taken over a week, basically reflecting opinion going back almost two weeks. So, that's why there's no hullabaloo on that front. 


More importantly, Tony has knocked back JG's offer for a Sunday chinwag. Which either makes him look in control and prime ministerial, or frightened. Will it matter?